Power Law / 2D + 3D
Compare price, trend and bands. Inspect the Z-Score and explore past dates.
Bitcoin Lab
Explore Bitcoin's Power Law model, cycles and scenarios. Open the lab to work with charts, backtests and exports.
Free. No account required. Local preferences and shareable links.
Cycles and Fourier
Inspect model residuals and their frequencies. Adjust the layers to understand the calculation.
Scenarios and backtesting
Test a price and date. Compare strategies with DCA and buy and hold, including costs and a walk-forward mode.
Share and export
Save PNG charts, CSV data and reports. Share links that preserve your configuration.
How to read the results
Power Law fits a regression to historical prices on a logarithmic scale. Its bands describe dispersion around that fit. Scenarios extrapolate the model; a band or phase does not guarantee a future price.
History uses mempool.space BTC/USD observations, sampled once per completed UTC day. Missing days carry the previous observation forward so Fourier has uniform intervals. The lab shows spot and history timestamps separately.
Model conditions follow configurable rules. They are not probabilities of success. In backtesting, distinguish the in-sample fit from walk-forward mode, which uses data available before each evaluated segment.
Read the data source documentationStart with Bitcoin's context
The Bitcoin Cycle Observatory brings together halvings, drawdowns and network activity. Use it alongside the lab to compare observed data with model scenarios.
Educational tool. Results depend on history, assumptions and your chosen configuration. Lab notifications work while the app is open.