01 / comparison
Calculated normalised peaks
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BTC / cycle observatory
Halvings, peaks, drawdowns, and network progress calculated from market and blockchain data. Context, not a forecast.
Live BTC
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Loading feed
Block height
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Bitcoin network tip
Blocks remaining
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until 2028 halving
Estimate
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at 10 min per block
01 / comparison
02 / protocol clock
The next halving occurs at block 1,050,000. Its estimate uses 10 minutes per block and moves with real mining cadence.
03 / measured cycles
No peaks, prices, or drawdowns are typed by hand. Every value is recalculated from the price series.
04 / live conditions
Public, observable data. Funding is Binance-only and does not represent the full derivatives market.
Return since halving
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current price vs 20 Apr 2024
Current drawdown
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from cycle high
Fear & Greed
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no reading
Binance funding / 8h
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single venue
Hashrate (30d)
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network average
Difficulty adjustment
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no reading
Priority fee
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mempool now
Price vs 200W MA
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calculated moving average
05 / current coverage
06 / next layer
Realized Price, MVRV, holder supply, and ETF flows will be added once we connect Glassnode, Coin Metrics, or your preferred provider. We will not simulate them.
Reference guide
The Bitcoin cycle is not a buy or sell signal. It is a way to organise measurable facts: block issuance, chain height, BTC/USD price, peaks, drawdowns, hashrate, difficulty, and block-space cost. This observatory updates those facts so you can examine the halving thesis without relying on a static chart.
Each bar starts from the price nearest the halving day and finds the highest price inside that epoch. It compares scale, not nominal prices. It also shows days to peak and the subsequent drawdown.
The next reward reduction is programmed for block 1,050,000, estimated around 2028. The exact date is not fixed: it depends on actual block production. That is why this dashboard uses blocks remaining, not an invented calendar countdown.
A drawdown measures the distance between the current price and the cycle high. It does not predict a bottom or say that price must recover. It helps compare realised risk with prior cycles and with your own time horizon.
The block reward falls every 210,000 blocks. That issuance change is verifiable. Price reaction is not: global liquidity, spot demand, derivatives, regulation, and adoption change in every epoch.
A more responsible read combines return since halving with drawdown, position versus the 200-week average, difficulty, hashrate, and funding conditions. None replaces a risk plan.
Historical BTC/USD prices and block height come from mempool.space. Sentiment comes from Alternative.me’s public index. Funding comes from Binance’s BTCUSDT perpetual contract and is labelled as a single venue. Values are recalculated server-side; when a source fails, the dashboard shows no reading.
Free sources do not cover Realized Price, MVRV, cohort supply, or ETF flows with the same depth. Those metrics will only be added with a licensed source and public methodology.
Learn and verify
These references explain the protocol and document the dashboard sources. They are here so you can verify definitions and data, not to suggest a market position.
How block height, proof of work, and difficulty adjustment work.
The original paper for understanding the peer-to-peer electronic cash design.
Technical reference for the open source used for block height and historical prices.
Methodology and reading for the sentiment indicator shown in the dashboard.
Live source: mempool.space for BTC/USD history and block height. Feed generated: —